However, with China's phenomenal rise and aggressive assertiveness of national power, the resulting apprehensions among its Asian neighbours virtually invited the US pivot to the region. Given manifest evidence of the self-defeating gridlock in American politics and policy formulation, India's reaction was understandable. If India did plant itself firmly in the US camp, and if US power continued to slide, what was the guarantee that the US would not reach a modus vivendi with China, leaving India to fend off a much stronger - and unhappy - neighbour? India's foreign policy, cautious to begin with, retreated into a safe but banal formulation of "strategic autonomy". Not only did it embolden China, but it also created apprehensions on the Indian side about the credibility of the US. When the Obama administration initially came into office, it flirted with the idea of a G2 that in retrospect proved severely damaging. However, the foundations laid under the Bush administration have grown only modestly subsequently, as uncertainties about each other's capabilities have sown the seeds of doubt about each other's interests. It is hardly news that the rise of China has been an important factor in driving the India-US relationship in the last decade. The dangers of what Graham Allison has called the "Thucydides trap" - in which a rising power, as it begins to rival a ruling power, becomes more confident and results in fear and anxiety for the ruling power - are entangling alliances and partnerships across Asia and creating new dilemmas for India. China's phenomenal rise and recent assertiveness of national power have caused serious apprehensions among its Asian neighbours, virtually inviting the US pivot to the region. The reasons for this flurry of activity are well recognised. Little wonder, then, that this time The Global Times was less pleased, warning in an article titled "India gets close to Japan at its own peril" that "overheated strategic cooperation with the Abe administration can only bring trouble to India and threaten its relationships with the relevant East Asian countries". Both declared strategic partnerships with countries that have a deep animosity and rivalry with the other. China cannot scale down this partnership merely because of India's feelings!"īut India played the same game with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Japan - doing unto China what China has been doing unto India. As the Chinese government's mouthpiece, The Global Times, pointedly observed, "India must accept and adapt to the enviable friendship between China and Pakistan. Premier Li Keqiang went to Pakistan to both provide strategic reassurance to a key partner ("a friendship more precious than gold") and signal China's continuing capacity to check India in its neighbourhood. Nonetheless, the next round of travels was just as revealing of the complex moves on the global chessboard. The visit certainly calmed tensions and offered the possibility of improved relations between the two nations. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's recent visit to India followed weeks of rising tension after the intrusion by Chinese troops into Ladakh. The past few weeks have seen a hectic round of meetings among the Asian powers. It doesn’t look like Trump’s tax cuts will pay for themselves.With Chinese President Xi Jinping wrapping up his visit to the United States, India needs to ponder where, between rising tensions on the one hand and an encomium between the world's superpowers - perhaps a G2 - on the other, the Goldilocks principle applies to its national interests. Trump’s first three years, Trump’s deficits will be almost $1 trillion greater at $2.47 trillion versus $1.51 trillion for Obama. If, and more likely when, there is another recession the deficit could easily top $2 trillion.Īnd when you compare the last three years of Obama’s Presidency vs. This would be a 74% increase in just four years and going forward the Federal deficit could escalate to $1.7 trillion in 2030. In 2017, his first year in office the deficit grew to $666 billion, was $984 billion last year and is projected to top over $1 trillion in 2020 at $1.02 trillion. President Trump on the other hand was handed an economy that was growing. As the economy recovered the deficits shrank to a low of $442 billion in 2015 and was $585 billion his last year in office. Not surprisingly, the deficit exploded from $459 billion in calendar 2008 to over $1.4 trillion in calendar 2009. President Obama entered office in early 2009 in the teeth of the Great Recession.
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